A report released today by DigiTimes shows that memory prices have begun to fluctuate on an hourly basis as AI-driven memory shortages worsen. Semiconductor industry insiders warn that small businesses unable to place orders immediately with upfront payments may face sharp price increases within minutes.
The report points out that the market is currently polarized: approximately 100 top buyers have the bargaining power to secure supply, while over 190,000 small and medium-sized enterprises are vying for the remaining memory.
About the DigiTimes Report
The report points out that cloud service providers, leading automakers, and smartphone giants Apple and Samsung have sufficient financial resources to resist price increases and maintain priority supply relationships with memory manufacturers. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron cannot afford to damage these relationships, hence these large customers prioritize supply, and they are increasingly inclined to prepay or cash transactions before confirming orders—terms that are unacceptable to smaller companies with weaker bargaining power.
According to DigiTimes, these companies will struggle to cope with soaring memory costs starting in the second half of 2025. As prices continue to climb in 2026, some companies have begun to lower their demand forecasts, essentially a "stop-loss" strategy. This practice is expected to spread as high prices persist, directly reducing overall demand in the memory market.
Last month, TrendForce raised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast to a 90-95% sequential increase, while NAND flash memory prices are expected to rise by 55-60% over the same period. Another report released today by DigiTimes indicates that DRAM prices could surge by another 70% in the second quarter of 2026, while market research firm IDC warns that the DRAM shortage could continue into 2027.
Disclosed by HP
HP disclosed last month that DRAM memory costs now account for 35% of its PC assembly costs, up from 15% to 18% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, Gartner predicts that PC shipments will decline by more than 10% and smartphone shipments by about 8% in 2026 due to rising memory costs. IDC expects white-box manufacturers, including DIY system assemblers, and low-end manufacturers will bear the greatest pressure.
All of this raises the question: what happens if enough small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exit the market because they cannot afford the premium? DigiTimes points out that if small buyers collectively withdraw from the market, tight capacity could quickly turn into oversupply, potentially rendering the so-called shortages "unjustified."
Source: Compiled from tomshardware
